add this to your list of all time dumb predictions

perhaps you've seen the Thomas Watson's (Chairman of IBM) prediction back in 1954 around the potential market for computers being "maybe 5".

or the former Commission of the US Patent Office, Charles Duell, in 1899, saying "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

and, on the flip side, we can safely predict that there will be no shortage is bad predictions in the future. validating our point this morning, our friends at Jupiter Research and this piece of fluff ( article )...

“Pretty much, most of the people who are ever going to be buying online are online,” said Patti Freeman Evans, senior retail analyst with Jupiter Research. “From the standpoint of behavior change and big shifts in adoption, it’s happened and it’s done.”

huh? never mind that her firm says that growth rates are still growing by greater than 10% through 2010 and retail is a zillion dollar market...

"Jupiter is expecting online retailing to dip below double-digit percentage growth rates sometime by around 2010, and to plateau at some future date after that." (same article)

of course, the whole article is silly so we're inclined to cut her a little slack. but then, really, if you were paid to make predictions on this stuff, wouldn't you be betting for; behavior would continue to change, more big shifts in adoptions and generally online retail to continue to reek havoc?

obviously, everything's already been invented